Open Access Digital Repository of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India

Precipitation analysis over southwest Iran: Trends and projections

Dhorde, AG and Zarenistanak, M and Kripalani, RH and Preethi, B (2014) Precipitation analysis over southwest Iran: Trends and projections. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 124 (3-4). pp. 205-216.

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)

Abstract

Analysis of trends and projection of precipitation are of significance for the future development and management of water resource in southwest Iran. This research has been divided into two parts. The first part consists of an analysis of the precipitation over 50 stations in the study region for the period 1950-2007. The trends in this parameter were detected by linear regression and significance was tested by t test. Mann-Kendall rank test was also employed to confirm the results. The second part of the research involved future projection of precipitation based on four models. The models used were Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg Model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC). Precipitation projections were done under B1 and A1B emissions scenarios. The results of precipitation series indicated that most stations showed insignificant trend in annual and seasonal series. The highest numbers of stations with significant trends occurred in winter while no significant trends were detected by statistical tests in summer precipitation. No decreasing significant trends were detected by statistical tests in annual and seasonal precipitation series. The result of projections showed that precipitation may decrease according to majority of the models under both scenarios but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. Autumn precipitation may increase with higher rates than other seasons at the end of this century.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Springer
Uncontrolled Keywords: atmospheric modeling; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; regression analysis; seasonality; testing method; trend analysis, Iran; United Kingdom
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2014 05:28
Last Modified: 28 Nov 2014 05:28
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/962

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item