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Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run

Saha, SK and Pokhrel, S and Chaudhari, HS and Dhakate, A and Shewale, S and Sabeerali, CT and Salunke, K and Hazra, A and Mahapatra, S and Rao, AS (2014) Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run. International Journal of Climatology, 34 (5). pp. 1628-1641.

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Simulation of Indian summer monsoon features by latest coupled model of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEPs) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is attempted in its long run. Improvements in the simulation of Indian summer monsoon as compared with previous version (CFSv1) is accessed and areas which still require considerable refinements are introduced. It is found that, spatial pattern of seasonal mean rainfall and wind circulations are more realistic in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1. Variance and northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which also contribute to the seasonal mean rainfall are remarkably improved. However, the central Indian dry bias still persists and amplified. Pervasive cold bias in surface (2m air temperature) as well as in the whole troposphere is further increased in CFSv2. These cold biases may be partly attributed to the lack of model's ability to realistically simulate the ratio of convective and stratiform rainfall. Sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean is underestimated in CFSv2. However, CFSv1 shows east-west dipole structure in the bias. The teleconnection of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in terms of Niño3 SST and monsoon rainfall correlation is more realistic in the latest version of the model. Overall, there are substantial improvements in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1, but it has to evolve further to realistically simulate the mean and variability of ISMR.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs Royal Meteorological Society.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climatology; Computer simulation; Forecasting; Oceanography; Rain, El Nino southern oscillation; Indian summer monsoon; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; Intraseasonal oscillations; National centers for environmental predictions; NCEP CFS; Sea surface temperatures; Seasonal mean rainfall, Climate models, air temperature; atmospheric circulation; climate prediction; computer simulation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; monsoon; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; troposphere; wind, India; Indian Ocean
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2014 07:03
Last Modified: 28 Nov 2014 07:03

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