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In search of influence of stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on tropical cyclones tracks over the Bay of Bengal region

Fadnavis, S and Ernest Raj, P and Buchunde, P and Goswami, BN (2014) In search of influence of stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on tropical cyclones tracks over the Bay of Bengal region. International Journal of Climatology, 34 (3). pp. 567-580.

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The ability of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to modulate tropospheric circulation allows it to modulate tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs). This possibility is examined using data on the cyclone tracks over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during the period 1948-2010. TC tracks (excluding the El Niño-Southern Oscillation years) when stratified as per the phases of QBO show the evidence of influence of stratospheric QBO on tracks. In pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, during easterly phase of QBO, cyclones move westward/northwestward while during westerly phase they move northward/northeastward. The evidence of influence of QBO on modulation of TC tracks is reported for the first time during pre-satellite period (1948-1978) and satellite period (1979-2010) over the BOB. The QBO influence is observed to be significantly stronger during easterly phase as compared to that in the westerly phase. Numbers of cyclones are more during easterly phase (during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon) than during the westerly phase. A mechanism is proposed whereby QBO of the zonal winds in the stratosphere influences the movement of cyclone tracks in the BOB by redistributing deep convection associated with cyclones by modulating steering winds. The possible interaction between QBO and cyclone activity is investigated through the variation of tropopause height, geo-potential height and Outgoing Longwave Radiations.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bay of Bengal; Cyclone activity; Deep convection; Geo-potential heights; Outgoing longwave radiation; Quasi-biennial oscillation; Tropical cyclone; Tropospheric circulation, Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Oscillators (mechanical); Storms, Hurricanes, atmospheric circulation; atmospheric convection; longwave radiation; quasi-biennial oscillation; stratosphere; tropical cyclone; tropopause; westerly; zonal wind, Bay of Bengal; Indian Ocean
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 05 Dec 2014 10:29
Last Modified: 05 Dec 2014 10:29

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