Open Access Digital Repository of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India

Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS)

Rajbhandari, R and Shrestha, AB and Kulkarni, A and Patwardhan, SK and Bajracharya, SR (2014) Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS). Climate Dynamics.

[img]
Preview
PDF
Projected changes.pdf - Published Version

Download (8MB) | Preview

Abstract

A regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future (2011-2040), middle of the twenty first century (2041-2070), and distant future (2071-2098). The baseline simulation (1961-1990) was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a non-uniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to The Author(s) 2014. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change;Future climate scenario;Climate projection; Himalaya region;Indus basin
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2014 06:19
Last Modified: 09 Dec 2014 06:19
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/882

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item