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Decadal variations in NDVI and food production in India

Milesi, C and Samanta, A and Hashimoto, H and Kumar, KK and Ganguly, S and Thenkabail, PS and Srivastava, AN and Nemani, RR and Myneni, RB (2010) Decadal variations in NDVI and food production in India. Remote Sensing, 2 (3). pp. 758-776.

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In this study we use long-term satellite, climate, and crop observations to document the spatial distribution of the recent stagnation in food grain production affecting the water-limited tropics (WLT), a region where 1.5 billion people live and depend on local agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Overall, our analysis shows that the recent stagnation in food production is corroborated by satellite data. The growth rate in annually integrated vegetation greenness, a measure of crop growth, has declined significantly (p < 0.10) in 23 of the WLT cropland area during the last decade, while statistically significant increases in the growth rates account for less than 2. Inmost countries, the decade-long declines appear to be primarily due to unsustainable crop management practices rather than climate alone. One quarter of the statistically significant declines are observed in India, which with the world's largest population of food-insecure people and largest WLT croplands, is a leading example of the observed declines. Here we show geographically matching patterns of enhanced crop production and irrigation expansion with groundwater that have leveled off in the past decade. We estimate that, in the absence of irrigation, the enhancement in dry-season food grain production in India, during 1982-2002, would have required an increase in annual rainfall of at least 30 over almost half of the cropland area. This suggests that the past expansion of use of irrigation has not been sustainable. We expect that improved surface and groundwater management practices will be required to reverse the recent food grain production declines. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Agricultural productions; Annual rainfall; Climate; Crop growth; Crop management practices; Crop production; Food grain; Food production; GIMMS NDVI; Groundwater management; Satellite data; Vegetation greenness; Water shortages; Water-limited tropics, Crops; Cultivation; Groundwater; Irrigation; Rain; Tropics; Water management; Water supply, Grain (agricultural product)
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2014 10:15
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2014 10:15

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