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Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model

Taraphdar, S and Mukhopadhyay, P and Goswami, BN (2010) Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model. Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (21).

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Abstract

As the active and break phases of Indian monsoon are associated with different large scale background regimes, the predictability of monsoon weather is expected to be different during these phases. In the present study, an ensemble of identical twin perturbation experiments are carried out using Weather Research Forecast model at 15 km resolution to demonstrate the predictability of weather during these phases. The initial conditions are taken from the 9 years (2001-2009) control simulations during periods of strong intra-seasonal oscillations events. The study revealed that the background estimates are different in these two contrasting regimes with more errors in the active phases confined mostly along the monsoon trough region. As a consequence, the predictability of active (break) period is found to be around 4 (10) days. Thus, the rapid (sluggish) error growth indicates that the monsoon weather such as lows are less (more) predictable during active (break) phases.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Geophysical Union
Uncontrolled Keywords: Active phasis; Control simulation; Error growth; High resolution; Indian monsoon; Indian summer monsoon; Initial conditions; Regional model; Trough region; Weather research forecasts, Atmospheric thermodynamics, Weather forecasting, climate modeling; climate prediction; error analysis; estimation method; numerical model; perturbation; regional climate; resolution; summer; trough; weather, India
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 28 May 2015 10:39
Last Modified: 28 May 2015 10:39
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/761

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