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Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability - The producer perspective

Stockdale, TN and Alves, O and Boer, G and Deque, M and Ding, Y and Kumar, A and Kumar, KR and Landman, W and Mason, S and Nobre, P and Scaife, A and Tomoaki, O and Yun, WT (2010) Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability - The producer perspective. In: 3rd World Climate Conference, WCC-3, 31 August - 4 September 2009, Geneva, Switzerland.

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Seasonal prediction is based on changes in the probability of weather statistics due to changes in slowly varying forcings such as seasurface temperature anomalies, most notably those associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, seasonal weather can be perturbed by many factors, and is very much influenced by internal variability of the atmosphere, so comprehensive models are needed to identify what can be predicted. The predictability and probabilistic nature of seasonal forecasts is explained with suitable examples. Current capabilities for seasonal prediction that have grown out of work done in the research community at both national and international levels are described. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems are operational or quasi-operational at a number of forecasting centres around the world. Requirements for seasonal prediction include initial conditions, particularly for the upper ocean but also other parts of the climate system; high quality models of the ocean-atmosphere-land system; and data for verification and calibration. The wider context of seasonal prediction and seamless forecasting is explained. Recommendations for the future of seasonal prediction and climate services are given. © 2010 Published by Elsevier.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Copyright of this paper belongs to Procedia Environmental Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate system; Comprehensive model; Current capability; El Nino southern oscillation; Forcings; Forecast method; Health monitoring and surveillance; High quality; Initial conditions; Interannual climate variability; Internal variability; International coordination; Land Systems; Ocean-atmosphere; Research communities; Sea surface temperatures; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal prediction; Sources of predictability; Upper ocean, Atmospheric pressure; Climate change; Upper atmosphere; Weather forecasting, Climate models
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2015 13:55
Last Modified: 22 Jun 2015 13:55

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