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Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

Patwardhan, S and Kulkarni, A and Krishna Kumar, K (2012) Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region. Journal of Earth System Science, 121 (1). pp. 203-210.

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Abstract

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate modeling; computer simulation; cyclone; global warming; greenhouse gas; numerical model; regional climate; storm
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 19 Dec 2013 12:37
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2013 12:37
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/533

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