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Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit

Saha, SK and Hazra, A and Pokhrel, S and Chaudhari, HS and Sujith, K and Rai, A and Rahaman, H and Goswami, BN (2019) Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 (4). pp. 1962-1974.

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Abstract

Large socioeconomic impact of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather low potential predictability (PP) of the seasonal ISM, contributed significantly by “internal,” interannual variability was considered insurmountable. Here we show that the internal variability contributed by the ISM subseasonal (synoptic + intraseasonal) fluctuations, so far considered chaotic, is partly predictable as found to be tied to slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Niño and Southern Oscillation). This provides a scientific basis for predictability of the ISM rainfall beyond the conventional estimates of PP. We establish a much higher actual limit of PP (r∼0.82) through an extensive reforecast experiment (1,920 years of simulation) by improving two major physics in a global coupled climate model, which raises a hope for a very reliable dynamical seasonal ISM forecasting in the near future

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Geophysical Union
Uncontrolled Keywords: annual variation; climate modeling; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; estimation method; global climate; monsoon; prediction; rainfall; socioeconomic impact; summer; weather forecasting, India
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: INCOIS Library
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2019 08:55
Last Modified: 18 Sep 2019 08:55
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/4641

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