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Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution

Ramu, DA and Sabeerali, CT and Chattopadhyay, R and Rao, DN and George, G and Dhakate, AR and Salunke, K and Srivastava, A and Rao, SA (2016) Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121 (5). pp. 2205-2221.

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Abstract

This study compares the simulation and prediction skill of the Indian summer monsoon at two different horizontal resolutions viz., T126 (~100 km) and T382 (~38 km) using 28 years of hindcast runs of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model. It is found that the simulation of the mean state of the South Asian summer monsoon, its variance, and prediction skill of the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) are better represented in the high-resolution configuration (T382) of the CFSv2 compared to the low-resolution (T126) configuration. In the high-resolution run, the systematic bias in the teleconnection between the AISMR and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has considerably reduced and the teleconnections between the AISMR and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remained same. We hypothesize that the better simulation of mean climate and IOD-AISMR teleconnection in high-resolution configuration (T382) of CFSv2 are responsible for the improved prediction skill of AISMR in T382 configuration. Although the T382 configuration of CFSv2 has shown a significant improvement in the simulation and prediction of Indian summer monsoon as compared to the T126 configuration, several parallel efforts are still essential to understand the processes controlling some of the systematic biases of CFSv2 and those efforts are underway as part of the Monsoon Mission project.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Geophysical Union
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2017 09:21
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2017 09:21
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/4365

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