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Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming

Azad, S and Rajeevan, M (2016) Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming. Scientific Reports, 6:2014. pp. 1-6.

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Abstract

EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3–5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3–5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5–3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Macmillan Publishers Limited
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2017 05:51
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2017 05:51
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/4277

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