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Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs

Chattopadhyay, R and Rao, SA and Sabeerali, CT and George, G and Rao, DN and Dhakate, AR and Salunke, K (2016) Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (9). pp. 3297-3313.

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Abstract

The seasonal prediction skill [defined as the linear correlation (cc) between the observed and forecasted rainfall] of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is evaluated in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model, at different lead times on the basis of its representation of large scale tropical teleconnection. Surprisingly, the model exhibits reasonable skill at a longer lead time (e.g. forecasts initialized with February initial conditions, Feb IC run, cc > 0.5) that is reasonably better when compared with that with forecast initialized at shorter lead time [April/May IC (Apr/May IC) runs, cc < 0.5]. Although the prediction skill of ISMR improves as lead time increases, the ENSO forecast skill improves as lead time decreases. Probable reasons for these counter-intuitive findings are investigated in this study.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: seasonal prediction;Indian summer monsoon;CFSv2;coupled modeling;teleconnection
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2017 05:26
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2017 05:26
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/4094

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