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IMD's new operational models for long-range forecast of southwest monsoon rainfall over India and their verification for 2003

Rajeevan, M and Pai, DS and Dikshit, SK and Kelkar, RR (2004) IMD's new operational models for long-range forecast of southwest monsoon rainfall over India and their verification for 2003. Current Science, 86 (3). pp. 422-431.

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Abstract

In 2003, India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced several new models for the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon rainfall. With this, it has become possible to issue the long-range forecasts in two stages. On 16 April, IMD issued the forecast for the 2003 southwest monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole, giving its users an extra lead time of about 40 days. On 9 July, IMD issued a forecast update and additional forecasts for three broad homogeneous regions of India. It also gave a five-category probabilistic forecast. In view of its importance for agriculture, for the first time, IMD also issued a forecast for July rainfall. The development of the new models is discussed in this article. The forecasts issued operationally in 2003 using these new models have proved to be accurate.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyrights of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: Administrator ePrints@MoES
Date Deposited: 11 Jun 2016 04:49
Last Modified: 11 Jun 2016 04:49
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/4054

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