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Projected climate change in the hindu kush-himalayan region by using the high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS

Kulkarni, A and Patwardhan, S and Kumar, KK and Ashok, K and Krishnan, R (2013) Projected climate change in the hindu kush-himalayan region by using the high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS. Mountain Research and Development, 33 (2). pp. 142-151.

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Abstract

A regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future (2011–2040), middle of the twenty first century (2041–2070), and distant future (2071–2098). The baseline simulation (1961–1990) was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a non-uniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Springer.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; climate modeling; data acquisition; global warming; latitude; monsoon; precipitation assessment; rainfall; regional climate; summer; water resource, Himalayas
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2014 10:37
Last Modified: 12 Jun 2014 10:37
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/351

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