Open Access Digital Repository of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India

Improvement of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction skills over east asian summer monsoon region using a climate filter concept

Lee, DY and Ahn, JB Joong-Bae and Ashok, K. (2013) Improvement of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction skills over east asian summer monsoon region using a climate filter concept. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (5). pp. 1127-1138.

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)

Abstract

The authors propose the use of a “climate filter” concept to enhance prediction skill of a multimodel ensemble (MME) suite for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature at 850 hPa. The method envisages grading models on the basis of the degree of reproducibility of the association of EASM variability with a few relevant climate drivers with the respective model hindcasts for the period 1981–2003. The analysis identifies the previous winter Niño-3.4 and spring North Atlantic Oscillation indices as the most suitable climate drivers in designing a climate filter for evaluating models that replicate the observed teleconnections to EASM well. The results show that the hindcast skills of a new MME with the better-performing models are significantly higher than those from the nonperforming models or from an all-inclusive operational MME.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Meteorological Society.
Uncontrolled Keywords: 850-hPa; East Asian summer monsoon; Grading model; Hindcasts; Multi-model ensemble; Reproducibilities; Seasonal prediction; Teleconnections, Extraterrestrial atmospheres; Meteorology, Climate models, air temperature; atmospheric modeling; ensemble forecasting; hindcasting; monsoon; North Atlantic Oscillation; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; teleconnection
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Jun 2014 05:59
Last Modified: 18 Jun 2014 05:59
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/313

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item