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Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system

Abhilash, S and Sahai, AK and Pattnaik, S and De, S (2013) Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 100-10. pp. 13-23.

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Abstract

This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and saturate thereafter. Irrespective of the phases of the monsoon, the lower bound of predictability is 2 pentads, while upper bound of predictability for initial conditions starting from active phase saturates at 3 pentads and for break and transition phases predictability error saturates at a later stage at about 5 pentad. Initial conditions started from transition phase shows higher potential predictability followed by break phase and then active phase.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyrights of this article belongs to Elsevier.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Active-break cycle; Ensemble prediction systems; Extended range; Forecast errors; Predictability, Geophysics; Planetary surface analysis, Forecasting
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Jun 2014 11:17
Last Modified: 18 Jun 2014 11:17
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/305

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