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On the association between pre-monsoon aerosol and all-India summer monsoon rainfall

Patil, SD and Preethi, B and Bansod, SD and Singh, HN and Revadekar, JV and Munot, AA (2013) On the association between pre-monsoon aerosol and all-India summer monsoon rainfall. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 102. pp. 1-7.

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Summer monsoon rainfall which gives 75-90 of the annual rainfall plays vital role in Indian economy as the food grain production in India is very much dependent on the summer monsoon rainfall. It has been suggested by recent studies that aerosol loading over the Indian region plays significant role in modulating the monsoon circulation and consequent rainfall distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Increased industrialization and the increasing deforestation over past few decades probably cause a gradual increase in the aerosol concentration. A significant negative relationship between pre-monsoon (March-May i.e. MAM) aerosol loading over BOB and IGP regions and the forthcoming monsoon rainfall have been observed from the thorough analysis of the fifteen years (1997-2011) monthly Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) and All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) data. Composite analysis revealed that AI anomalies during pre-monsoon season are negative for excess year and positive for deficient monsoon years over the Indian subcontinent, with strong variation over Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) regions from the month of March onwards. The correlation coefficients between AISMR and pre-monsoon AI over BOB and IGP regions are found to be negative and significant at 5 level. The study clearly brings out that the pre-monsoon aerosol loading over the BOB and IGP regions has a significant correlational link with the forthcoming monsoon intensity; however a further study of the aerosol properties and their feedback to the cloud microphysical properties is asked for establishing their causal linkage.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyrights of this article belongs to Elsevier.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Aerosol index; AISMR; Cloud microphysical properties; Correlation coefficient; Pre-monsoon; Rainfall distribution; Summer monsoon rainfall; Total ozone mapping spectrometer, Aerosols; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Deforestation; Rain, Loading
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 20 Jun 2014 06:24
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2014 06:24

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