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Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Abhilash, S and Sahai, AK and Borah, N and Chattopadhyay, R and Joseph, S and Sharmila, S and De, S and Goswami, BN (2014) Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15. pp. 114-119.

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Abstract

Impact of bias correction of sea surface temperature (SST) forecast on extended range (ER, ∼3–4 weeks) prediction skill is studied using the bias-corrected forecasted SST from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as the boundary condition for running the Global Forecast System version 2 (GFSv2) model. Potential predictability limit is comparable (∼16 days) for both bias-corrected GFSv2 (GFSv2bc) and CFSv2. Prediction skills of active and break spells and of low-frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations is higher for GFSv2bc at all lead pentads. Although initially same, predictability error after 14 days grows slightly faster for GFSv2bc compared to CFSv2. Bias correction in SST has minimal impact in short-to-medium range, while substantial influence is felt in ER between 12–18 days.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: monsoon intraseasonal oscillations;coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling;ensemble prediction system;extended range prediction;bias correction in SST
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2015 03:50
Last Modified: 18 Sep 2015 03:50
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/2693

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