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Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Munot, AA and Kumar, KK (2007) Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Journal of Earth System Science, 116 (1). pp. 73-79.

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Abstract

The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels, few predictors are identified and a prediction scheme is developed for predicting AISMR. The regression coefficients are computed by stepwise multiple regression procedure. The final equation explained 87 of the variance with multiple correlation coefficient (MCC), 0.934. The estimated rainfall in the, El-Niño year of 1997 was -1.7 as against actual of 4.4. The estimated rainfall deficiency in both the recent deficient years of 2002 and 2004 were -19.5 and -8.5 as against observed -20.4 and -11.5 respectively.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Uncontrolled Keywords: correlation; El Nino; long range forecast; monsoon; multiple regression; numerical method; prediction; rainfall; summer, Asia; Eurasia; India; South Asia
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 28 Dec 2014 09:26
Last Modified: 28 Dec 2014 09:26
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1914

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