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Calibration of PRECIS in employing future scenarios in Bangladesh

Islam, MdN and Rafiuddin, M and Ahmed, AU and Kolli, RK (2008) Calibration of PRECIS in employing future scenarios in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology, 28 (5). pp. 617-628.

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Abstract

Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) is a regional climate model, which is used for the simulation of regional-scale climatology at high resolution (i.e. 50-km horizontal resolution). The calibration of rainfall and temperature simulated by PRECIS is performed in Bangladesh with the surface observational data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the period 1961-1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the performance of the model. The results for the period 1961-1990 are used as a reference to find the variation of PRECIS-projected rainfall and temperature in 2071, in and around Bangladesh, as an example. Analyses are performed using the following two methods: (1) grid-to-grid and (2) point-to-point analyses. It is found that grid-to-grid analysis provides overestimation of PRECIS in Bangladesh because of downscaling of observed data when gridded from asymmetric low-density data network of BMD. On the other hand, model data extracted at observational sites provide better performance of PRECIS. The model overestimates rainfall in dry and pre-monsoon periods, whereas it underestimates it in the monsoon period. Overall, PRECIS is found to be able to estimate about 92 of surface rainfall. Model performance in estimating rainfall increases substantially with the increase in the length of time series of datasets. Systematic cold bias is found in simulating the annual scale of the surface temperature. In the annual scale, the model underestimates temperature of about 0.61 °C that varies within a range of + 1.45°C to - 3.89°C in different months. This analysis reveals that rainfall and temperature will be increased in Bangladesh in 2071. On the basis of the analyses, look-up tables for rainfall and temperature were prepared in a bid to calibrate PRECIS simulation results for Bangladesh. The look-up tables proposed in this analysis can be employed in the application of the projected rainfall and temperature in different sectors of the country. These look-up tables are useful only for the calibration of PRECIS simulation results for future climate projection for Bangladesh.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Atmospheric temperature; Precipitation (meteorology); Rain; Table lookup; Time series analysis, Grid-to-grid analysis; Point-to-point analysis; Regional climate model, Climatology, air temperature; calibration; climate modeling; downscaling; estimation method; future prospect; monsoon; performance assessment; rainfall; regional climate; weather forecasting, Asia; Bangladesh; Eurasia; South Asia
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 19 Feb 2015 05:12
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2015 05:12
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1849

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