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Impact of modified physics in limited area model forecasts

Sanjay, J and Singh, SS (1998) Impact of modified physics in limited area model forecasts. Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, 107 (3). pp. 187-201.

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A number of physical factors have been introduced to improve limited area model forecasts. The factors include land surface fluxes, shallow convection and radiation. The model including these additional physical factors (modified physics) is run for five cases of monsoon depression which made landfall over the Indian coast, and the results are compared with those of the control run. The forecasts are verified by computing the root mean square and mean errors. The differences in these skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the modified physics has a statistically significant effect on the model skill with the maximum impact on the mean sea level pressure and the temperature. Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, rainfall and temperature further confirm that the modified physics has maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and temperature and marginal impact on wind and rainfall. Furthermore, analyses of some model parameters related to physics at a grid point for one case of depression were done. The results show that the inclusion of the land surface physics, shallow convection and radiative processes have produced a better precipitation forecast over the grid point.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Science
Uncontrolled Keywords: forecasting method; model; monsoon; physical property
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2015 06:07
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2015 06:07

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