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Probabilities of excess and deficient southwest monsoon rainfall over different meteorological sub-divisions of India

Kothawale, DR and Munot, AA (1998) Probabilities of excess and deficient southwest monsoon rainfall over different meteorological sub-divisions of India. Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, 107 (2). pp. 107-119.

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Abstract

Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June - September) rainfall is very useful for the country's agriculture and food grain production. It contributes more than 75 of India's annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (18711994) data of monthly and seasonal rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India. In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871-1994) seasonal rainfall (June - September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Science
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 28 Feb 2015 04:08
Last Modified: 28 Feb 2015 04:08
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1662

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