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Applying the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection in prediction of the Indian monsoon

Vaidya, SS and Singh, SS (2000) Applying the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection in prediction of the Indian monsoon. Weather and Forecasting, 15 (3). pp. 349-356.

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Abstract

The performance of the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection has been investigated for prediction of the Indian monsoons. For this purpose a limited area numerical weather prediction model with two schemes of convection, one with the Betts-Miller scheme and other with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, is run for five cases of monsoon depression that made landfall over the Indian coast. The results from the two schemes are compared. Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, and rainfall have shown that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has considerably improved the rainfall prediction over the Indian landmass and improvement is also seen in the mean sea level pressure fields and cyclonic circulation associated with the depression at the 850-hPa level. The forecast results are further verified by computing the root-mean-square errors, and the difference in the skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has a statistically significant effect on the model skill beyond 24 h, with maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and geopotential height. The performance of the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection has been investigated for prediction of the Indian monsoons. For this purpose a limited area numerical weather prediction model with two schemes of convection, one with the Betts-Miller scheme and other with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, is run for five cases of monsoon depression that made landfall over the Indian coast. The results from the two schemes are compared. Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, and rainfall have shown that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has considerably improved the rainfall prediction over the indian landmass and improvement is also seen in the mean sea level pressure fields and cyclonic circulation associated with the depression at the 850-hPa level. The forecast results are further verified by computing the root-mean-square errors, and the difference in the skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has a statistically significant effect on the model skill beyond 24 h, with maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and geopotential height.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: Atmospheric pressure; Error analysis; Mathematical models; Rain; Statistical tests, Betts-Miller-Janjic method; Monsoons, Weather forecasting, convection; monsoon; prediction; weather forecasting
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 26 Apr 2015 18:53
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2015 18:53
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1607

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