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Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Bawiskar, SM and Mujumdar, VR and Singh, SS (2002) Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon. Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, 111 (2). pp. 153-162.

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Abstract

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between 30°S and 30°N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1 level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25°S and 5°N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Science
Uncontrolled Keywords: momentum transfer; monsoon; wave propagation; westerly; zonal flow; zonal wind, India
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2015 14:13
Last Modified: 24 Apr 2015 14:13
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1533

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