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On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: The intriguing season of 2002

Gadgil, S and Srinivasan, J and Nanjundiah, RS and Krishna Kumar, K and Munot, AA and Rupa Kumar, K (2002) On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: The intriguing season of 2002. Current Science, 83 (4). pp. 394-403.

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This year, the rainfall over India during the first half of the summer monsoon season was 30 below normal. This has naturally led to a lot of concern and speculation about the causes. We have shown that the deficit in rainfall is a part of the natural variability. Analysis of the past data suggests that there is a 78 chance that seasonal mean rainfall this year will be 10 or more below the long-term average value. We discuss briefly how forecasts for seasonal rainfall are generated, whether this event could have been foreseen, and share our perspective on the problems and prospects of forecasting the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Science
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2015 14:08
Last Modified: 24 Apr 2015 14:08

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