Open Access Digital Repository of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India

Markov chain models for pre-monsoon season thunderstorms over Pune

Kulkarni, MK and Kandalgaonkar, SS and Tinmaker, MIR and Nath, A (2002) Markov chain models for pre-monsoon season thunderstorms over Pune. International Journal of Climatology, 22 (11). pp. 1415-1420.

[img]
Preview
PDF
1107.pdf - Published Version

Download (63kB) | Preview

Abstract

The probabilistic distribution of the thunderstorm phenomenon during the pre-monsoon season (1 March to 18 June) over Pune, a tropical Indian station, has been examined with the help of Markov chain models using daily thunderstorm data for a period of 11 years (1970-80). The data have also been tested using Akaike's information criterion. This test has clearly indicated that the first-order Markov chain model is the best fit model for thunderstorm forecasting, which has described the appropriate period (8 days) of occurrence of thunderstorm phenomenon over Pune. Further, the steady-state probabilities and mean recurrence time of thunderstorm days and non-thunderstorm days have also been calculated for the first- and second-order Markov chain models. These computations have revealed that the observed and theoretical values of steady-state probabilities are realistically matched.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change; Markov processes; Probability; Thunderstorms; Weather forecasting, Monsoon, Climatology, Markov chain; probability; thunderstorm, India
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2015 14:07
Last Modified: 24 Apr 2015 14:07
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1526

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item