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Seasonal forecasting of Thailand summer monsoon rainfall

Singhrattna, N and Rajagopalan, B and Clark, M and Kumar, KK (2005) Seasonal forecasting of Thailand summer monsoon rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 25 (5). pp. 649-664.

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This paper describes the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Thailand. Predictors of Thailand summer (August-October) monsoon rainfall are identified from the large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation variables (i.e. sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure) in the Indo-Pacific region. The predictors identified are part of the broader El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The predictors exhibit a significant relationship with the summer rainfall only during the post-1980 period, when the Thailand summer rainfall also shows a relationship with ENSO. Two methods for generating ensemble forecasts are adapted. The first is the traditional linear regression, and the second is a local polynomial-based nonparametric method. The associated predictive standard errors are used for generating ensembles. Both the methods exhibit significant comparable skills in a cross-validated mode. However, the nonparametric method shows improved skill during extreme years (i.e. wet and dry years). Furthermore, the models provide useful skill at 1-3 month lead time that can have a strong impact on resources planning and management. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: Atmospheric temperature; Parameter estimation; Polynomials; Rain; Regression analysis; Resource allocation; Weather forecasting, Linear regression; Resource planning; Sea-surface temperature; Summer monsoon rainfall, Climatology, El Nino-Southern Oscillation; forecasting method; long range forecast; monsoon; summer, Asia; Eastern Hemisphere; Eurasia; Southeast Asia; Thailand; World
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2015 08:08
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2015 08:08

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