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Interannual and interdecadal variability of Thailand summer monsoon season

Singhrattna, N and Rajagopalan, B and Krishna Kumar, K and Clark, M (2005) Interannual and interdecadal variability of Thailand summer monsoon season. Journal of Climate, 18 (11). pp. 1697-1708.

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Summer monsoon rains are a critical factor in Thailand's water resources and agricultural planning and management. In fact, they have a significant impact on the country's economic health. Consequently, understanding the variability of the summer monsoon rains over Thailand is important for instituting effective mitigating strategies against extreme rainfall fluctuations. To this end, the authors systematically investigated the relationships between summer monsoon precipitation from the central and northern regions of Thailand and large-scale climate features. It was found that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), in particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a negative relationship with the summer monsoon rainfall over Thailand in recent decades. However, the relationship between summer rainfall and ENSO was weak prior to 1980. It is hypothesized that the ENSO teleconnection depends on the SST configuration in the tropical Pacific Ocean, that is, an eastern Pacific-based El Niño pattern, such as is the case in most of the post-1980 El Niño events, tends to place the descending limb of the Walker circulation over the Thailand-Indonesian region, thereby significantly reducing convection and consequently, rainfall over Thailand. It is believed that this recent shift in the Walker circulation is instrumental for the nonstationarity in ENSO-monsoon relationships in Thailand. El Niños of 1997 and 2002 corroborate this hypothesis. This has implications for monsoon rainfall forecasting and, consequently, for resources planning and management.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Meteorological Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: Agriculture; Atmospheric temperature; Rain; Strategic planning; Water resources; Weather forecasting, Agricultural planning; Interannual variability; Monsoon rains; Sea surface temperature (SST), Climatology, monsoon; temporal variation, Agriculture; Forecasts; Meteorology; Planning; Rain; Temperature; Water Resources; Weather, Asia; Eastern Hemisphere; Eurasia; Southeast Asia; Thailand; World
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2015 07:00
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2015 07:00

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