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Relative importance of circulation at various levels in specifying and predicting 5- and 10-day monsoon rainfall

Singh, SV and Mooley, DA and Kripalani, RH and Ubale, PD (1979) Relative importance of circulation at various levels in specifying and predicting 5- and 10-day monsoon rainfall. Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie Serie A, 28 (2-3). pp. 169-185.

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Abstract

The relative importance of the atmospheric circulation at various levels (mean sea level, 700 mb and 500 mb levels) in specifying (5-day) and predicting (5-day and 10-day) rainfall of various subdivisions in India during the summer monsoon season (June through September) is investigated. Regression equations are developed by taking Chebyshev polynomials fitted to 5-day charts as independent variables and rainfall as dependent variable. Charts of two regions are considered, (i) bounded between 5° and 35° N, 60° and 100° E and (ii) bounded between 10° and 50°N, 15° and 145°E, to study the effect of increasing areal extent of charts in specifying and predicting rainfall. The regression equations are developed by taking parameters from only one type of charts at a time. It is found that for the specification of 5-day rainfall the 700 mb charts for the smaller region are better than those for the other levels or for the large region of 700 mb but the prediction of rainfall shows improvement on using the charts of the larger region. The results are not verified on independent data but certain arguments are put forth for proving their validity. The results show that rainfall prediction may be possible through synoptic-statistical techniques for the subdivisions in central and western India. Correlation coefficients between mean sea-level pressure, 700 mb and 500 mb contour heights for smaller region are also discussed.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Springer
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2015 04:49
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2015 04:49
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1377

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