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Tropical quasi-biennial oscillation of the 10mb wind and Indian monsoon rainfall - implications for forecasting.

Bhalme, HN and Rahalkar, SS and Sikder, AB (1987) Tropical quasi-biennial oscillation of the 10mb wind and Indian monsoon rainfall - implications for forecasting. Journal of Climatology, 7 (4). pp. 345-353.

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Abstract

The fluctuations in the zonal wind anomalies in January at 10mb appear to be highly related to the monsoon rainfall, with rainfall tending to be less (more) than normal during E (W) anomaly, suggesting some predictive value for the Indian monsoon rainfall. The zonal wind anomalies at 10mb lead those at 30mb by 6 months. This lead time is consistent with the well-known downward phase propagation with a speed of 1km/month in the QBO of tropical stratospheric wind. Large-scale flood never occurred during E wind anomalies, and drought almost never during W anomalies in January at 10mb. This suggests that useful probability forecasts of droughts or floods could be prepared.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Royal Meteorological Society
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 02 May 2015 09:28
Last Modified: 02 May 2015 09:28
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1191

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