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Prediction of all-India summer monsoon rainfall with regional and large-scale parameters

Parthasarathy, B and Diaz, HF and Eischeid, JK (1988) Prediction of all-India summer monsoon rainfall with regional and large-scale parameters. Journal of Geophysical Research, 93 (D5). pp. 5341-5350.

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Abstract

Using multiple regression, several statistical models were developed to predict Indian monsoon rainfall from conditions antecedent to the start of the monsoon season (defined as the period June-September). The predictors were selected in a stepwise fashion from a set of 11 predictors. New predictors, such as the preceeding winter to spring sea level pressure change at Bombay, India, which was a leading predictor in all the models, could alone account for 50-60 of the predictand variance. The latitudinal position of the 500-mbar ridge axis in April along 75°E longitude was generally the second predictor to be entered. The regression model based on the earliest development sample (1951-1970), however, had the Southern Oscillation Index of Tahiti-Darwin winter-to-spring sea level pressure tendency as its number two predictor.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Geophysical Union
Uncontrolled Keywords: large-scale parameter; monsoon prediction; monsoon rainfall; multiple regression; regional parameter; statistical model; summer, India, Bombay
Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: IITM Library
Date Deposited: 02 May 2015 09:20
Last Modified: 02 May 2015 09:20
URI: http://moeseprints.incois.gov.in/id/eprint/1183

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